What ETF flow numbers actually measure
Daily “inflow” figures summarise creation baskets: authorised participants moving BTC into the fund structure so new shares can be listed. They are not the same as “retail bought the dip,” and they can be noisy around rebalancing and month-end.
Use flows as one thermometer, not a complete diagnosis. Pair them with futures basis, funding, and on-chain exchange balances for a fuller (still imperfect) picture.
Exchange reserves: the habit worth building
Declining exchange balances often (not always) line up with strong holder behaviour — coins moving to custody, cold storage, or structured products. A single daily print means little; you want trends across weeks, plus awareness of which venues dominate the metric.
Custody wallets and attribution limits
Tracing presumed custodial clusters is useful for journalism and research, but on-chain attribution is probabilistic. Labels can lag real-world changes. Treat wallet graphs as directional evidence, not court-grade proof of who bought what.
Bottom line for readers
ETF flows + reserve trends + stable macro liquidity conditions form a reasonable research triangle. None of these guarantees the next month’s price. Our job is to explain mechanics so you can DYOR with fewer myths.