Method sketch
Record each pathfinding attempt: destination, amount, proposed fee, failure code. Aggregate weekly to remove outlier hours. Compare small vs large payments — large payments fail more often without deep liquidity.
Representative outcomes (educational, not a guarantee)
In stressed network conditions, success rates can cluster in the ~70–85% band for non-trivial amounts unless you aggressively overpay fees or pre-allocate liquidity along known paths. Your mileage depends on topology.
Operator takeaways
- Rebalance proactively; don’t wait for user complaints
- Watch peer stability — flaky peers poison pathfinding
- Document fee strategy; “free routing” is not a business model
Reproduce, don’t trust: run your own node and publish methodology.