A toy model (not a price prediction)
Suppose circulating supply is a small fraction of max supply. Holding price flat as the rest unlocks requires ongoing net demand large enough to absorb insider and investor distributions. If demand stalls, mechanical selling can dominate narratives.
What to read in a disclosure
- Cliff length and linear vesting schedules
- Team vs investor vs ecosystem tranches
- Whether governance can change emissions
Why Bitcoiners should care
Bridge tokens, staking receipts, and incentive programs still interact with BTC liquidity. FDV literacy prevents mistaking a small float pump for a sustainable repricing.
Numbers in forum threads are illustrative. Always verify from primary sources before decisions.